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BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 17 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
cml · 8 games
75%

Yangon Galacticos

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Young PH · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
539 picks · 380 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 654 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
444 picks · 530 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
429 picks · 842 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 178 bans
45%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
341 picks · 537 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
334 picks · 538 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
275 picks · 311 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 29%
Hero pool strength58% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total81% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:26
Polaris Esports 66%Yangon Galacticos 34%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
55% · 36 games52% · 253 games
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMac
43% · 126 games53% · 215 games
Monkey KingKsh
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierForce
40% · 105 games
Io
IoBoomy
44% · 81 game
Bane
Banecml
57% · 120 games
Game 2prediction correct47:21
Polaris Esports 70%Yangon Galacticos 30%
The model gave 70% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 28:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNatsumi
54% · 76 games44% · 127 games
Phantom AssassinKsh
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMac
56% · 98 games48% · 269 games
Void SpiritYoung PH
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierForce
50% · 117 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magicml
51% · 36 games
Io
IoBoomy
59% · 69 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 81%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2