ПОНЧИКИ vs ПУДЖ В КУСТАХ — prediction RD 2 · Dota 2

Randomania по Dota 2 · BO1

result vs prediction

ППОНЧИКИwin 1:0

series probability

51%49%

probability at match start · final 1:0

ПВПУДЖ В КУСТАХloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ПОНЧИКИ

No games played over 6 months.

ПУДЖ В КУСТАХ

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

511 picks · 296 bans

57%

Phoenix

480 picks · 572 bans

52%

Tiny

438 picks · 353 bans

50%

Jakiro

432 picks · 338 bans

48%

Tusk

372 picks · 322 bans

55%

Rubick

348 picks · 184 bans

51%

Beastmaster

347 picks · 839 bans

49%

Puck

347 picks · 846 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% ПОНЧИКИ

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total51% ПОНЧИКИ

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct44:42

ПОНЧИКИ 51%ПУДЖ В КУСТАХ 49%

The model gave 51% on ПОНЧИКИ — the game was taken by ПОНЧИКИ in 42:01.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo