DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CyberHeroloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 23 games
Slardar
nicky`cool · 22 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 19 games
Doomsignature
Alberkaaa · 15 games
Snapfire
Alberkaaa · 15 games
CyberHero
Rubick
Wein · 10 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Htrd · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 4 games
Storm Spirit
Ainkrad · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Htrd · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
524 picks · 340 bans
Dark Willow
455 picks · 246 bans
Mirana
406 picks · 183 bans
Winter Wyvern
357 picks · 330 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
300 picks · 137 bans
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 292 bans
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:17
Power Rangers 55%CyberHero 45%
The model gave 55% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosAlberkaaa
DoomWoE
Sand Kingnicky`cool
BrewmasterBb3px
SlarkOtaker
Storm SpiritAinkrad
WindrangerImmersion
MiranaHtrd
Dazzleasdekor_r
HoodwinkWein
Game 2prediction missed29:34
Power Rangers 55%CyberHero 45%
The model gave 55% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by CyberHero in 1:03:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetOtaker
UrsaWoE
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Earth SpiritAinkrad
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
PangolierBb3px
Dazzleasdekor_r
RubickWein
WindrangerImmersion
Witch DoctorHtrd
Game 3prediction correct43:22
Power Rangers 57%CyberHero 43%
The model gave 57% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightAlberkaaa
SpectreWoE
Vipernicky`cool
Earth SpiritAinkrad
WindrangerOtaker
PangolierBb3px
ClockwerkImmersion
WarlockHtrd
Witch Doctorasdekor_r
RubickWein
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 60%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3