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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 27 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 22 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
65%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
68%

Inner Circle

Warlock
Warlock
Se · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
511 picks · 418 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 256 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 540 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
412 picks · 358 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
364 picks · 817 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 867 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 203 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:32
Power Rangers 66%Inner Circle 34%
The model gave 66% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
Vipernicky`cool
52% · 97 games57% · 141 game
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Alchemist
AlchemistEyesight
45% · 55 games51% · 216 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
49% · 274 games45% · 206 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Windranger
WindrangerImmersion
55% · 168 games67% · 18 games
Winter WyvernSe
Winter Wyvern
Silencer
SilencerHduo
42% · 133 games49% · 146 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct46:28
Power Rangers 67%Inner Circle 33%
The model gave 67% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 57:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidEyesight
68% · 35 games48% · 145 games
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
48% · 141 game48% · 162 games
Underlordlaise
Underlord
Chen
ChenHduo
57% · 128 games43% · 98 games
KunkkaStojkov
Kunkka
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
54% · 143 games45% · 112 games
RubickFernans
Rubick
Windranger
WindrangerImmersion
51% · 161 game46% · 91 game
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct23:13
Power Rangers 64%Inner Circle 36%
The model gave 64% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaEyesight
49% · 210 games46% · 144 games
Lifestealer423
Lifestealer
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
49% · 390 games46% · 340 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordAlberkaaa
50% · 198 games47% · 269 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickImmersion
58% · 246 games53% · 429 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Chen
ChenHduo
54% · 156 games46% · 18 games
Winter WyvernSe
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 76%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3