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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 7 games
14%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Alberkaaa · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 5 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 5 games
40%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 47 games
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 43 games
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 33 games
45%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 29 games
55%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 29 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
544 picks · 885 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 392 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 643 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 597 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 842 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 588 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 572 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 491 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:17
Power Rangers 46%Rune Eaters 54%
The model gave 54% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 32:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunanesfeer
47% · 59 games50% · 178 games
Ursayowaai
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
56% · 456 games53% · 274 games
PuckEthereal
Puck
Batrider
BatriderAlberkaaa
53% · 399 games43% · 136 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonImmersion
48% · 384 games44% · 365 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Largo
LargoHduo
74% · 11 games49% · 356 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed44:26
Power Rangers 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunanesfeer
45% · 40 games57% · 164 games
Muertayowaai
Muerta
Sniper
Snipernicky`cool
50% · 50 games54% · 289 games
TinyEthereal
Tiny
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
46% · 194 games52% · 65 games
ViperAnkou
Viper
Chen
ChenHduo
47% · 102 games54% · 178 games
Marciani-san
Marci
Tusk
TuskImmersion
43% · 345 games53% · 35 games
Omniknightmonodrama
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 58%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2