PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sskebobloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
Slardaroften banned
nicky`cool · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
Clockwerk
Hduo · 3 games
skebob
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
529 picks · 864 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 380 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 636 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 588 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 806 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 562 bans
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 574 bans
Mars
341 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% skebob
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% skebob
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:37
Power Rangers 41%skebob 59%
The model gave 59% on skebob — the game was taken by skebob in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Muertassnovv1
Tinynicky`cool
UnderlordCloud
KunkkaAlberkaaa
SlardarDifference
JakiroHduo
Dark Willowsayuw
TuskImmersion
Ogre MagiXakoda
Game 2prediction missed28:11
Power Rangers 44%skebob 56%
The model gave 56% on skebob — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Leshracnicky`cool
UnderlordCloud
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Ember SpiritDifference
RingmasterImmersion
JakiroXakoda
LargoHduo
Dark Willowsayuw
Game 3prediction missed23:9
Power Rangers 43%skebob 57%
The model gave 57% on skebob — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razornesfeer
Muertassnovv1
Leshracnicky`cool
SlardarDifference
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
TidehunterCloud
ChenHduo
Ogre MagiXakoda
PhoenixImmersion
Ringmastersayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteskebob · 65%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3