DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 26 games
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 23 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 22 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
Tusk
Immersion · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 17 games
South America Rejects
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Wits · 6 games
Grimstroke
Scofield · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Nyx Assassin
Scofield · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 5 games
Enchantress
Elmisho · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 569 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 415 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 411 bans
Phoenix
463 picks · 525 bans
Hoodwink
454 picks · 230 bans
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1032 bans
Puck
387 picks · 902 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Power Rangers 40%South America Rejects 60%
The model gave 60% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects.
Game 2prediction correct20:20
Power Rangers 45%South America Rejects 55%
The model gave 55% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterTA2000
NecrophosWits
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Queen of PainDarkMago
Void Spiritnicky`cool
SlardarFrank
ChenHduo
PhoenixElmisho
HoodwinkImmersion
RingmasterScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 60%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2