EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TJTeam Jenzloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 38 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 27 games
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 27 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 25 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 21 game
Rubick
Hduo · 16 games
Team Jenz
Linasignature
No!ob · 6 games
Snapfireoften banned
No!ob · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
Luna
Parker · 5 games
Ringmaster
Jing · 4 games
Shadow Demon
Jing · 4 games
Tusk
Yadomi · 3 games
Largooften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
500 picks · 364 bans
Clockwerk
365 picks · 654 bans
Rubick
351 picks · 196 bans
Bane
333 picks · 375 bans
Tiny
321 picks · 346 bans
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 448 bans
Windranger
311 picks · 232 bans
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Power Rangers 60%Team Jenz 40%
The model gave 60% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunabashka
SvenParker
DoomAlberkaaa
PuckNo!ob
Pangolierkiyotaka
HoodwinkislA
Keeper of the LightImmersion
RingmasterJing
DisruptorHduo
Game 2prediction correct43:27
Power Rangers 59%Team Jenz 41%
The model gave 59% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 46:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosbashka
Shadow FiendParker
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
PuckNo!ob
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
Earth SpiritJing
Dark WillowImmersion
BaneislA
LargoHduo
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 66%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2