Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPBProject Bloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Meta4Prowin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Project B
No games played over 6 months.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 820 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 496 bans
Mars
309 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 458 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 505 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Project B
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Project B 55%Meta4Pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Project B — the game was taken by Project B in 33:25.
Game 2prediction missed15:25
Project B 55%Meta4Pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Project B — the game was taken by Meta4Pro in 30:29.
Game 3prediction missed15:33
Project B 55%Meta4Pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Project B — the game was taken by Meta4Pro in 29:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteProject B · 55%
Series resultMeta4Pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3