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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Prosti Esliloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NoTechieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Prosti Esli

No games played over 6 months.

NoTechies

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 9 games
11%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Solo · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
xsvampire · 6 games
17%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Solo · 6 games
17%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
DkFogas · 6 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1015 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 602 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
363 picks · 189 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 368 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 508 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 680 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 227 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
260 picks · 145 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 27%
Hero pool strength57% Prosti Esli
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Prosti Esli
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:18
Prosti Esli 64%NoTechies 36%
The model gave 64% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by NoTechies in 27:43.
Game 2prediction missed19:31
Prosti Esli 64%NoTechies 36%
The model gave 64% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by NoTechies in 35:35.
Game 3prediction missed16:33
Prosti Esli 64%NoTechies 36%
The model gave 64% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by NoTechies in 27:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteProsti Esli · 64%
Series resultNoTechies 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3