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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Prosti Esliwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Trident Clanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Prosti Esli

No games played over 6 months.

Trident Clan

Mirana
Mirana
SoulEater · 4 games
25%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 3 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
SoulEater · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
antoha · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Pikachu · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 984 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 531 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 569 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 711 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
335 picks · 335 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
309 picks · 170 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 227 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 27%
Hero pool strength56% Prosti Esli
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Prosti Esli
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:25
Prosti Esli 65%Trident Clan 35%
The model gave 65% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Trident Clan in 42:43.
Game 2prediction missed10:19
Prosti Esli 65%Trident Clan 35%
The model gave 65% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Trident Clan in 30:44.
Game 3prediction missed53:33
Prosti Esli 65%Trident Clan 35%
The model gave 65% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Trident Clan in 50:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteProsti Esli · 65%
Series resultProsti Esli 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3