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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 26 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malik · 19 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
44%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 34 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 28 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lou · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 19 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 626 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 363 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 428 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 407 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 514 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 113 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
299 picks · 167 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:17
PSG Quest 49%Azure Ray 51%
The model gave 51% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherTA2000
47% · 63 games53% · 152 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckNo!ob
55% · 145 games48% · 101 game
Weaverlou
Weaver
Mars
MarsMalik
49% · 170 games46% · 87 games
Snapfirefy
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
48% · 172 games54% · 54 games
Spirit BreakerFaith_bian
Spirit Breaker
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
42% · 21 game52% · 177 games
Techies天命
Techies
Game 2prediction correct41:18
PSG Quest 52%Azure Ray 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
52% · 100 games43% · 90 games
Chaos Knightlou
Chaos Knight
Doom
DoomMalik
50% · 89 games55% · 28 games
DazzleOri
Dazzle
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
44% · 120 games51% · 150 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Lion
LionOmaR
52% · 111 games50% · 220 games
Hoodwink天命
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
58% · 81 game57% · 13 games
Bounty Hunterfy
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 51%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2