Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
Mirana
OmaR · 2 games
Bane
Eixn · 1 game
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
OmaR · 1 game
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
440 picks · 277 bans
Mars
426 picks · 574 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 454 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 736 bans
Sand King
328 picks · 452 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 471 bans
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 418 bans
Pangolier
284 picks · 428 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:33
PSG Quest 38%Brame 62%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 58:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo!ob
Anti-MageFocus
EnchantressEixn
NecrophosThuG
PugnaOmaR
ViperSkyLark
51% · 21 game
EarthshakerdEsire
53% · 79 games
IoSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct24:33
PSG Quest 39%Brame 61%
The model gave 61% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
LunaFocus
Keeper of the LightOmaR
ViperSkyLark
JakiroEixn
Storm SpiritThuG
44% · 58 games
ClockwerkdEsire
51% · 53 games
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 70%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2