Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 9 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 7 games
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 7 games
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 15 games
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 11 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
Bane
Hduo · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 7 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 437 bans
Mars
481 picks · 701 bans
Bane
452 picks · 297 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 533 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 612 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 605 bans
Sand King
367 picks · 531 bans
Keeper of the Light
348 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:8
PSG Quest 40%cybercats 60%
The model gave 60% on cybercats — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 20:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritNo!ob
WeaverShigetsu
Earth SpiritOmaR
BeastmasterDkFogas
IoEixn
PuckEgor
51% · 65 games
DoomFezor
56% · 235 games
BaneHduo
Game 2prediction correct18:29
PSG Quest 42%cybercats 58%
The model gave 58% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNo!ob
Faceless VoidShigetsu
ClockwerkOmaR
Keeper of the LightEgor
IoEixn
EnigmaDkFogas
45% · 47 games
JakiroFezor
59% · 27 games
MarciHduo
Game 3prediction correct43:42
PSG Quest 38%cybercats 62%
The model gave 62% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
AlchemistEgor
Earth SpiritOmaR
Wraith KingShigetsu
Crystal MaidenEixn
VisageDkFogas
58% · 48 games
DoomFezor
59% · 69 games
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 68%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3