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European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OmaR · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kaori · 3 games
100%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
No!ob · 3 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Eixn · 2 games
0%

cybercats

Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fezor · 15 games
53%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 14 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DkFogas · 9 games
44%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Fezor · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
393 picks · 380 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
350 picks · 354 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
326 picks · 227 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
284 picks · 286 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 148 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
208 picks · 111 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
206 picks · 261 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 521 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:3
PSG Quest 52%cybercats 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 20:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderNo!ob
38% · 148 games56% · 89 games
UrsaAlberkaaa
Ursa
Slark
SlarkTA2000
54% · 84 games55% · 136 games
Leshraczenica
Leshrac
Tidehunter
TidehunterWuiter
38% · 107 games51% · 198 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Silencer
SilencerKaori
50% · 93 games56% · 193 games
Miranaforcemajor
Mirana
Rubick
RubickOmaR
48% · 241 game58% · 57 games
Shadow Demonjesv
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed17:28
PSG Quest 52%cybercats 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by cybercats in 46:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTA2000
50% · 85 games50% · 127 games
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomWuiter
51% · 209 games56% · 360 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderNo!ob
47% · 187 games53% · 48 games
Centaur Warrunnerzenica
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
46% · 307 games45% · 227 games
Snapfireforcemajor
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerKaori
52% · 150 games52% · 176 games
Rubickjesv
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct28:14
PSG Quest 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
51% · 83 games48% · 144 games
Keeper of the LightChira JUNIOR
Keeper of the Light
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
50% · 186 games46% · 141 game
Doomzenica
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWuiter
47% · 122 games53% · 146 games
Monkey KingAlberkaaa
Monkey King
Rubick
RubickOmaR
50% · 162 games57% · 93 games
Disruptorforcemajor
Disruptor
Riki
RikiKaori
46% · 21 game47% · 50 games
Techiesjesv
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 51%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3