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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 17 games
94%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 29 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 28 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 27 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 26 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
681 picks · 458 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
643 picks · 682 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
577 picks · 1121 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
503 picks · 1048 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
501 picks · 1239 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 476 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
465 picks · 719 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
440 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
PSG Quest 52%Evil Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
46% · 152 games59% · 129 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Broodmother
BroodmotherATF
45% · 133 games50% · 268 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
45% · 195 games54% · 153 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressOmaR
47% · 180 games53% · 179 games
PugnaMatthew
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerKaori
46% · 219 games56% · 150 games
Spirit BreakerPanda
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct25:14
PSG Quest 53%Evil Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
52% · 174 games54% · 194 games
LycanPakazs
Lycan
Doom
DoomATF
49% · 336 games51% · 483 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
51% · 544 games50% · 210 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Techies
TechiesOmaR
47% · 255 games49% · 431 game
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerKaori
51% · 250 games45% · 241 game
Skywrath MagePanda
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 54%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2