Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 50 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 31 game
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 25 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
Undyingsignature
Kaori · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 24 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 47 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 43 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 41 game
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 37 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 33 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
512 picks · 325 bans
Batrider
434 picks · 919 bans
Doom
425 picks · 914 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 846 bans
Spirit Breaker
385 picks · 390 bans
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 866 bans
Beastmaster
376 picks · 974 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total80% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
PSG Quest 34%Gaimin Gladiators 66%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 50:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
WindrangerQuinn
Queen of PainNo!ob
Juggernautdyrachyo
PhoenixKaori
UnderlordAce
MarsMalik
RubicktOfu
MiranaOmaR
DisruptorSeleri
Game 2prediction correct25:34
PSG Quest 32%Gaimin Gladiators 68%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:01:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidTA2000
Medusadyrachyo
EnigmaMalik
DoomAce
SnapfireNo!ob
Storm SpiritQuinn
PhoenixKaori
Keeper of the LighttOfu
LionOmaR
UndyingSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 80%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2