Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Eixn · 4 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OmaR · 3 games
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 10 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Cloud · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Bane
Malady · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 625 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 505 bans
Bane
435 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 564 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 520 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 561 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:37
PSG Quest 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by HF in 35:47.
Game 2prediction correct18:48
PSG Quest 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 49:21.
Game 3prediction missed18:49
PSG Quest 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by HF in 30:06.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 57%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3