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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Astral · 6 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 738 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 612 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 424 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
386 picks · 704 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 166 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 984 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 702 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
PSG Quest 77%JustBetter 23%
The model gave 77% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 21:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTA2000
53% · 147 games48% · 172 games
SvenFocus
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMalik
51% · 115 games54% · 108 games
SlardarThuG
Slardar
Windranger
WindrangerNo!ob
56% · 112 games44% · 106 games
Dark SeerSkyLark
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
52% · 106 games50% · 78 games
Spirit BreakerAstral
Spirit Breaker
Venomancer
VenomancerDukalis
50% · 40 games39% · 56 games
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct29:34
PSG Quest 78%JustBetter 22%
The model gave 78% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTA2000
54% · 110 games51% · 67 games
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
55% · 131 game47% · 96 games
Queen of PainThuG
Queen of Pain
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
55% · 84 games39% · 41 game
Night StalkerSkyLark
Night Stalker
Venomancer
VenomancerDukalis
48% · 26 games52% · 198 games
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
Tiny
TinyOmaR
43% · 108 games50% · 57 games
OracleSsaSpartan
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 91%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2