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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Kalmychataloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%

Kalmychata

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
smN · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Actor · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
477 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 751 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 417 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 627 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 725 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 166 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1010 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 719 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:22
PSG Quest 45%Kalmychata 55%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTA2000
45% · 44 games52% · 44 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
51% · 41 game47% · 136 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
49% · 102 games50% · 116 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
56% · 108 games43% · 26 games
Night StalkerActor
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
46% · 72 games57% · 45 games
Oracleantoha
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct35:33
PSG Quest 49%Kalmychata 51%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 1:10:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
49% · 154 games51% · 196 games
GyrocopterRetsu
Gyrocopter
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
49% · 118 games44% · 38 games
Arc WardenNattyNarwhal
Arc Warden
Doom
DoomMalik
44% · 139 games56% · 131 game
BrewmasterActor
Brewmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
52% · 86 games45% · 168 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
54% · 105 games55% · 69 games
Ioantoha
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2