Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 9 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 8 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 7 games
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 7 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 646 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 481 bans
Bane
448 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 573 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 621 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 552 bans
Death Prophet
338 picks · 801 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:67
PSG Quest 39%KBU.US 61%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 1:13:56.
Game 2prediction correct
PSG Quest 39%KBU.US 61%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 61%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2