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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Tiny
Tiny
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Io
Iosignature
Eixn · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
OmaR · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Eixn · 7 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
No!ob · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 6 games
67%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 4 games
25%

KZ TEAM

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
58%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 9 games
44%
Viper
Vipersignature
W1sh- · 9 games
100%
Batrider
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
348 picks · 321 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 274 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 520 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
251 picks · 459 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
244 picks · 533 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
225 picks · 573 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 332 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 125 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:14
PSG Quest 50%KZ TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
55% · 49 games51% · 315 games
TuskG.T.I
Tusk
Death Prophet
Death ProphetWuiter
48% · 48 games51% · 61 game
Dark SeerMr. Luck
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
44% · 157 games
Rubick
RubickOmaR
47% · 41 game
Snapfire
SnapfireKaori
50% · 81 game
Game 2prediction correct39:12
PSG Quest 54%KZ TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
42% · 136 games51% · 332 games
MarsG.T.I
Mars
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWuiter
45% · 16 games61% · 178 games
EnigmaMr. Luck
Enigma
Slark
SlarkTA2000
45% · 14 games
Tiny
TinyOmaR
47% · 220 games
Rubick
RubickKaori
46% · 124 games
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 59%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2