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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 51 game
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 31 game
81%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Kaori · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 25 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 22 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
646 picks · 689 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
534 picks · 343 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 951 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
436 picks · 934 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
412 picks · 863 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 879 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
386 picks · 997 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
386 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:10
PSG Quest 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
54% · 70 games56% · 65 games
Spectreshiro
Spectre
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
44% · 391 game57% · 344 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
52% · 220 games44% · 203 games
Marsniu
Mars
Rubick
RubickOmaR
48% · 488 games49% · 178 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerKaori
51% · 201 game49% · 580 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Game 2prediction missed20:10
PSG Quest 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
46% · 155 games62% · 122 games
Faceless Voidshiro
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
TidehunterMalik
52% · 184 games50% · 329 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
48% · 274 games50% · 370 games
SnapfireNothingToSay
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
40% · 153 games40% · 34 games
WeaverpLAnet
Weaver
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
54% · 340 games51% · 251 game
Silencery`
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 58%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2