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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 12 games
42%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
bengan · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Supream^ · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 7 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
422 picks · 689 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 649 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
395 picks · 323 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 468 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
382 picks · 840 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 601 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:13
PSG Quest 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTA2000
51% · 104 games46% · 151 game
LunaUlnit
Luna
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
54% · 144 games42% · 153 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaMalik
52% · 104 games53% · 151 game
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickOmaR
46% · 442 games49% · 199 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
57% · 152 games50% · 292 games
Disruptorbengan
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed19:34
PSG Quest 63%MOUZ 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
50% · 143 games52% · 160 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Zeus
ZeusNo!ob
44% · 39 games54% · 296 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalik
49% · 156 games48% · 157 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickOmaR
42% · 437 games60% · 86 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
51% · 174 games48% · 250 games
Disruptorbengan
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed16:29
PSG Quest 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
51% · 174 games49% · 189 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Razor
RazorNo!ob
48% · 79 games49% · 113 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
52% · 158 games54% · 157 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesOmaR
48% · 231 game52% · 163 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
46% · 211 games51% · 231 game
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 76%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3