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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 12 games
42%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 10 games
60%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fbz · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Matthew · 8 games
63%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
KuroKy · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 657 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 618 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
381 picks · 311 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
366 picks · 796 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
363 picks · 418 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 564 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total69% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:18
PSG Quest 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
56% · 133 games48% · 217 games
TerrorbladeMiracle-
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMalik
50% · 118 games49% · 317 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
49% · 279 games50% · 180 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesOmaR
52% · 395 games48% · 188 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
49% · 231 game49% · 254 games
MiranaKuroKy
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct32:9
PSG Quest 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
44% · 198 games48% · 159 games
SvenMiracle-
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
48% · 113 games40% · 126 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Kunkka
KunkkaMalik
51% · 146 games56% · 204 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
55% · 177 games49% · 118 games
GyrocopterKuroKy
Gyrocopter
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
56% · 175 games52% · 202 games
TinyMatthew
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 69%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2