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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 20 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 19 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 681 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 426 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 520 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
388 picks · 178 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
337 picks · 169 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 624 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
333 picks · 533 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 778 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head7 – 0
Model total80% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
PSG Quest 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTA2000
44% · 161 game50% · 105 games
WeaverMiracle-
Weaver
Windranger
WindrangerNo!ob
45% · 86 games52% · 102 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
57% · 132 games50% · 36 games
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Shadow Fiend
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
51% · 88 games47% · 153 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDukalis
50% · 57 games54% · 128 games
DisruptorKuroKy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed12:31
PSG Quest 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTA2000
47% · 63 games45% · 136 games
MuertaMiracle-
Muerta
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
51% · 43 games49% · 113 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarMalik
55% · 79 games63% · 45 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
41% · 168 games51% · 68 games
IoGH
Io
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
48% · 160 games55% · 151 game
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct27:4
PSG Quest 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTA2000
59% · 96 games52% · 201 game
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
47% · 139 games39% · 149 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMalik
54% · 110 games54% · 56 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
50% · 160 games52% · 78 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
47% · 114 games48% · 135 games
DisruptorKuroKy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 80%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3