The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 28 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 25 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 16 games
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 23 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
675 picks · 454 bans
Techies
636 picks · 673 bans
Doom
572 picks · 1116 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1234 bans
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1043 bans
Disruptor
496 picks · 475 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 711 bans
Pangolier
436 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
PSG Quest 61%nouns 39%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenTA2000
Dragon KnightGunnar
DoomATF
MorphlingYamSun
Ember SpiritNo!ob
TidehunterMoo
UndyingKaori
RubickLelis
MiranaOmaR
EnchantressHusky
Game 2prediction correct26:10
PSG Quest 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidTA2000
TimbersawGunnar
BroodmotherATF
MedusaYamSun
SnapfireNo!ob
PangolierMoo
EnchantressKaori
Keeper of the LightLelis
RubickOmaR
TechiesHusky
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 68%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2