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Leon Masters #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 29 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 22 games
59%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 18 games
56%

One Move

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 10 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Rein · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 818 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
373 picks · 377 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
360 picks · 263 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
355 picks · 740 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 514 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
311 picks · 640 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 370 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
PSG Quest 72%One Move 28%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
46% · 119 games46% · 149 games
WindrangerWoE
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
43% · 113 games57% · 44 games
Dazzleряф^^
Dazzle
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
55% · 150 games53% · 50 games
Legion CommanderSSS
Legion Commander
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
54% · 59 games51% · 123 games
Elder TitanFng
Elder Titan
Sven
SvenDukalis
50% · 189 games49% · 264 games
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed29:42
PSG Quest 72%One Move 28%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by One Move in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
55% · 92 games47% · 177 games
WindrangerWoE
Windranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
51% · 202 games45% · 77 games
PudgeSSS
Pudge
Pangolier
PangolierMalik
51% · 312 games42% · 345 games
Rubickряф^^
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
46% · 183 games57% · 204 games
ClockwerkFng
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
46% · 119 games61% · 105 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Game 3prediction correct39:18
PSG Quest 72%One Move 28%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
44% · 220 games48% · 372 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Weaver
WeaverTA2000
50% · 175 games52% · 260 games
Templar Assassinряф^^
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierMalik
43% · 355 games53% · 370 games
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
49% · 229 games47% · 117 games
JakiroFng
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
50% · 232 games65% · 92 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 87%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3