Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSCAGIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 4 games
Grimstroke
Eixn · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OmaR · 4 games
Mirana
OmaR · 4 games
SCAGI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
457 picks · 498 bans
Bane
434 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 538 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 573 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 519 bans
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
PSG Quest 61%SCAGI 39%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:11.
Game 2prediction correct44:30
PSG Quest 61%SCAGI 39%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:36.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 61%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2