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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 35 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 34 games
71%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 20 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
OmaR · 19 games
74%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 19 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 18 games
61%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 2 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Cr1t- · 2 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Skiter · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Sneyking · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
229 picks · 272 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
228 picks · 107 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
194 picks · 415 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
194 picks · 257 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
193 picks · 415 bans
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 278 bans
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:27
PSG Quest 55%Team Falcons 45%
The model gave 55% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 51:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
43% · 56 games49% · 114 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMalik
52% · 108 games50% · 79 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo!ob
48% · 126 games56% · 194 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
50% · 215 games48% · 115 games
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOmaR
46% · 150 games55% · 153 games
Treant ProtectorSneyking
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed18:42
PSG Quest 52%Team Falcons 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
50% · 106 games55% · 67 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
45% · 94 games50% · 77 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Zeus
ZeusNo!ob
50% · 59 games51% · 85 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
48% · 159 games53% · 180 games
Treant ProtectorSneyking
Treant Protector
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
50% · 97 games49% · 106 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct36:16
PSG Quest 54%Team Falcons 46%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTA2000
60% · 58 games47% · 196 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
43% · 124 games55% · 87 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Axe
AxeMalik
51% · 39 games53% · 88 games
Dragon KnightATF
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKaori
56% · 253 games47% · 82 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
46% · 64 games42% · 85 games
GrimstrokeSneyking
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 56%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3