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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:3
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Falconswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 32 games
56%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
OmaR · 12 games
75%

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 15 games
93%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 13 games
54%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
281 picks · 407 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 585 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
207 picks · 183 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 296 bans
55%
Magnus
Magnus
204 picks · 304 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 73%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total59% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
PSG Quest 45%Team Falcons 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaTA2000
48% · 111 games50% · 92 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
54% · 179 games48% · 190 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
53% · 294 games53% · 370 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Rubick
RubickOmaR
43% · 306 games49% · 252 games
MagnusATF
Magnus
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
59% · 156 games45% · 142 games
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct33:45
PSG Quest 47%Team Falcons 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:03:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
48% · 85 games54% · 198 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
51% · 202 games53% · 71 game
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
49% · 207 games46% · 155 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
48% · 197 games53% · 289 games
DisruptorCr1t-
Disruptor
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
54% · 168 games44% · 146 games
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct12:40
PSG Quest 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusNo!ob
52% · 48 games45% · 39 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
55% · 46 games56% · 153 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Magnus
MagnusMalik
47% · 143 games48% · 120 games
MarsATF
Mars
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
48% · 220 games51% · 82 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKaori
51% · 100 games49% · 163 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 59%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3