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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 15 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 12 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 8 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Eixn · 8 games
75%

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 22 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 465 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
434 picks · 669 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
409 picks · 526 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
388 picks · 261 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 852 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 638 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 559 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:32
PSG Quest 41%X3 59%
The model gave 59% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNo!ob
41% · 129 games57% · 35 games
Juggernautnesfeer
Juggernaut
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernEixn
55% · 77 games49% · 41 game
ZeusNattyNarwhal
Zeus
Marci
MarciOmaR
52% · 95 games63% · 12 games
VenomancerShergarat
Venomancer
47% · 182 games
Tinyvelheor
Tiny
49% · 31 game
JakirosmN
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed26:5
PSG Quest 40%X3 60%
The model gave 60% on X3 — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 13:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
49% · 250 games57% · 138 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
44% · 105 games58% · 38 games
BrewmasterShergarat
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenEixn
36% · 39 games56% · 131 game
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
43% · 14 games
Clinkzvelheor
Clinkz
57% · 73 games
Winter WyvernsmN
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction missed50:28
PSG Quest 40%X3 60%
The model gave 60% on X3 — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
54% · 138 games62% · 65 games
Juggernautnesfeer
Juggernaut
Tiny
TinyOmaR
46% · 181 game51% · 86 games
Winter WyvernNattyNarwhal
Winter Wyvern
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenEixn
35% · 38 games59% · 56 games
VisageShergarat
Visage
39% · 61 game
JakirosmN
Jakiro
52% · 89 games
Marcivelheor
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 66%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3