ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
4Piratesloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
4Pirates
Lion
ariel · 1 game
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
Terrorblade
Otaker · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 527 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 362 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 444 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 566 bans
Dark Willow
273 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 341 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 946 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
PuckChamp 79%4Pirates 21%
The model gave 79% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 79%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1