?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Ancient Tribe

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 9 games
22%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
38%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
920 picks · 623 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 451 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
547 picks · 874 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 436 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 542 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
489 picks · 332 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
472 picks · 1031 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
445 picks · 322 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:33
PuckChamp 64%Ancient Tribe 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 1:00:17.
Game 2prediction missed38:15
PuckChamp 64%Ancient Tribe 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 43:13.
Game 3prediction missed44:27
PuckChamp 64%Ancient Tribe 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 58:08.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 64%
Series resultAncient Tribe 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3