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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 969 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 712 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 553 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
329 picks · 331 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
298 picks · 163 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 219 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 276 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:20
PuckChamp 64%AS Monaco Gambit 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 33:43.
Game 2prediction missed32:17
PuckChamp 64%AS Monaco Gambit 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 28:13.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 64%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2