Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
B8 Esports
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 10 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 7 games
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
401 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
276 picks · 570 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 356 bans
Mars
265 picks · 420 bans
Winter Wyvern
259 picks · 243 bans
Puck
256 picks · 566 bans
Lina
247 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:23
PuckChamp 72%B8 Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:29.
Game 2prediction missed14:37
PuckChamp 72%B8 Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 48:59.
Game 3prediction missed30:10
PuckChamp 72%B8 Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 43:34.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 72%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3