Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
348 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
289 picks · 105 bans
Mars
265 picks · 407 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 352 bans
Lina
257 picks · 514 bans
Luna
233 picks · 329 bans
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 236 bans
Nyx Assassin
222 picks · 470 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:15
PuckChamp 65%Brame 35%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Brame in 28:42.
Game 2prediction missed36:39
PuckChamp 65%Brame 35%
The model gave 65% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Brame in 48:50.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 65%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2