Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Creepwaveloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 14 games
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 12 games
Marssignature
ATF · 10 games
Lichsignature
Fishman · 9 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 9 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
220 picks · 471 bans
Void Spirit
195 picks · 259 bans
Mars
194 picks · 352 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 142 bans
Keeper of the Light
152 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
150 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
145 picks · 469 bans
Rubick
133 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 77%
Hero pool strength62% Creepwave
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:37
PuckChamp 44%Creepwave 56%
The model gave 56% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 41:25.
Game 2prediction correct23:11
PuckChamp 44%Creepwave 56%
The model gave 56% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 37:20.
Game 3prediction correct20:4
PuckChamp 44%Creepwave 56%
The model gave 56% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 22:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 56%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3