Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
EXTREMUM
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
425 picks · 964 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 554 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 707 bans
Mars
340 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
315 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 209 bans
Lion
268 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:15
PuckChamp 77%EXTREMUM 23%
The model gave 77% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 33:11.
Game 2prediction missed30:13
PuckChamp 77%EXTREMUM 23%
The model gave 77% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 31:10.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 77%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2