Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Fantastic Five
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 16 games
Void Spirit
Askold · 15 games
Hoodwink
jAMES · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 10 games
Grimstroke
633 · 10 games
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
392 picks · 173 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 352 bans
Nyx Assassin
265 picks · 536 bans
Winter Wyvern
252 picks · 244 bans
Lina
250 picks · 405 bans
Luna
246 picks · 329 bans
Mars
244 picks · 399 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:25
PuckChamp 70%Fantastic Five 30%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 34:35.
Game 2prediction missed26:27
PuckChamp 70%Fantastic Five 30%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 38:37.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 70%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2