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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
Immersion · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 9 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 8 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
999 picks · 694 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
643 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 940 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
544 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 422 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
532 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1206 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
PuckChamp 43%Into The Breach 57%
The model gave 57% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 36:46.
Game 2prediction correct13:37
PuckChamp 43%Into The Breach 57%
The model gave 57% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 32:01.
Game 3prediction correct33:37
PuckChamp 43%Into The Breach 57%
The model gave 57% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:07:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 57%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3