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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KWloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 8 games
13%
Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 6 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
40%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
75%

KW

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
monodrama · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
lupsione · 4 games
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Lina
Lina
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
100%
Luna
Luna
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
lupsione · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
494 picks · 356 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 225 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 640 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 343 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
316 picks · 229 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
304 picks · 294 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 397 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 422 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% KW
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:18
PuckChamp 45%KW 55%
The model gave 55% on KW — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuragi
65% · 26 games47% · 87 games
LunaRetsu
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
51% · 65 games43% · 227 games
Clockwerklupsione
Clockwerk
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
48% · 114 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGothic-
60% · 57 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
56% · 52 games
Game 2prediction missed100:0
PuckChamp 44%KW 56%
The model gave 56% on KW — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuragi
47% · 32 games49% · 171 game
WindrangerRetsu
Windranger
Lina
Linaxn丶e
63% · 11 games43% · 32 games
Miranalupsione
Mirana
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkrol9ash
59% · 72 games
Techies
TechiesGothic-
51% · 51 game
Enchantress
EnchantressHyugadoto
44% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKW · 63%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2