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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
54%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Hellscream · 8 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
450 picks · 194 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 589 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 894 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 324 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 239 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 397 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
292 picks · 405 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:24
PuckChamp 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:24.
Game 2prediction missed18:36
PuckChamp 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:21.
Game 3prediction missed42:13
PuckChamp 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:03.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 57%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3