Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 42 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 35 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 30 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 28 games
Tiny
Worick · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 446 bans
Mars
486 picks · 702 bans
Bane
452 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 534 bans
Sand King
388 picks · 543 bans
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 626 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:36
PuckChamp 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 47:40.
Game 2prediction correct17:4
PuckChamp 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 24:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 52%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2