Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
Grimstroke
Fezor · 2 games
Hoodwink
Fezor · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
351 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 518 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 346 bans
Lina
253 picks · 415 bans
Luna
249 picks · 333 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 244 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:23
PuckChamp 80%qwerty44 20%
The model gave 80% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 43:44.
Game 2prediction missed28:6
PuckChamp 80%qwerty44 20%
The model gave 80% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 26:33.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 80%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2