Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 8 games
Bane
Fezor · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Disruptor
Fezor · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
299 picks · 109 bans
Lina
262 picks · 505 bans
Mars
257 picks · 416 bans
Pangolier
254 picks · 348 bans
Luna
240 picks · 332 bans
Shadow Demon
225 picks · 236 bans
Nyx Assassin
223 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 24%
Hero pool strength62% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:30
PuckChamp 86%qwerty44 14%
The model gave 86% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 33:45.
Game 2prediction missed29:28
PuckChamp 86%qwerty44 14%
The model gave 86% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 86%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2