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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sigma.YNTwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 29 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
kur0patbI4 · 15 games
60%
Dazzle
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
413 picks · 421 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 378 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 264 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
301 picks · 309 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
260 picks · 306 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
243 picks · 127 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
215 picks · 153 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
207 picks · 575 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:39
PuckChamp 63%Sigma.YNT 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 57:55.
Game 2prediction missed13:15
PuckChamp 63%Sigma.YNT 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 21:43.
Game 3prediction missed36:19
PuckChamp 63%Sigma.YNT 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 39:51.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 63%
Series resultSigma.YNT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3