Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Blinkloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Blink
Silencer
smN · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
smN · 1 game
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
Mirana
smN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 636 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 693 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 776 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
PuckChamp 63%Team Blink 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 36:15.
Game 2prediction correct30:28
PuckChamp 63%Team Blink 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 45:46.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 63%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2