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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Syntaxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
gbc · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hyugadoto · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
onLiTaL · 1 game
0%

Team Syntax

Axe
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnus
emptiness · 1 game
0%
Oracle
Oracle
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 1 game
0%
Techies
Techies
Jeezy · 1 game
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
527 picks · 372 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
429 picks · 257 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 369 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 633 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 433 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
327 picks · 232 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 314 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
293 picks · 224 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Syntax
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:27
PuckChamp 50%Team Syntax 50%
The model gave 50% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidgotthejuice
55% · 17 games48% · 177 games
Bristlebackemptiness
Bristleback
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
57% · 110 games49% · 387 games
WarlockStoic
Warlock
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkrol9ash
51% · 39 games51% · 105 games
LionJeezy
Lion
Jakiro
JakiroHyugadoto
49% · 356 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGothic-
44% · 147 games
Game 2prediction correct45:35
PuckChamp 45%Team Syntax 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 52:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
44% · 61 game48% · 133 games
InvokerJeezy
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
46% · 194 games52% · 187 games
Axeemptiness
Axe
Enigma
Enigmakrol9ash
55% · 67 games57% · 324 games
TuskStoic
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
44% · 201 game
Largo
LargoGothic-
51% · 121 game
Game 3prediction correct24:43
PuckChamp 48%Team Syntax 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinygotthejuice
53% · 257 games46% · 315 games
Axeemptiness
Axe
Lina
Linadualrazee
52% · 18 games52% · 399 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
50% · 248 games47% · 481 game
SnapfireStoic
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGothic-
54% · 477 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
48% · 195 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Syntax · 54%
Series resultTeam Syntax 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3