ESL One Summer 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Uniquewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
378 picks · 975 bans
Lion
372 picks · 201 bans
Mars
362 picks · 584 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
295 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 218 bans
Death Prophet
282 picks · 625 bans
Void Spirit
273 picks · 465 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total75% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:35
PuckChamp 75%Team Unique 25%
The model gave 75% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Unique in 40:03.
Game 2prediction missed27:17
PuckChamp 75%Team Unique 25%
The model gave 75% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Unique in 36:44.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 75%
Series resultTeam Unique 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2